Austin Market Pulse - November 2025

Austin Market Pulse, November 2025

Pending sales rose, inventory climbed, prices stayed steady, and closings dipped. Translation: the market is not “over,” it’s just picky.

If you only look at closed sales, you might think Central Texas took a hit in November. If you look at what buyers are actually doing right now, you’ll see something different: demand is showing up again, just with higher standards.

According to the November 2025 Central Texas Housing Report from Unlock MLS, pending sales in the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos MSA increased 4.5% year over year to 2,269, and inventory rose to 6.3 months, the highest level recorded in over a year. Prices stayed relatively stable, with the MSA median price down 1.1% year over year to $430,000, while closed sales fell 15.9% to 1,895 transactions.

It’s important to note something I think matters a lot for context: November 2024 was not a “normal” comparison month because demand was boosted after the Fed’s first rate cut, and mortgage rates responded. Layer in the ripple effects of an October government shutdown impacting November closings, and this year’s drop in closings can look scarier than it actually is.

So let’s talk about what these numbers really mean for you, whether you’re thinking about selling, buying, or holding.

The quick read, what happened in November

Central Texas MSA highlights:

• Pending sales: 2,269, up 4.5%

• Inventory: 6.3 months, highest level in over a year

• Median price: $430,000, down 1.1%

• Closed sales: 1,895, down 15.9%

November 2025 “For Sale” snapshot:

• Residential homes sold: 655, down 7.1%

• Median price: $565,000, down 1.5%

• New listings: 793, down 4.6%

• Active listings: 4,064, up 6.9%

• Pending sales: 753, up 5.5%

• Months of inventory: 4.9, up 0.3

• Close-to-list: 91.8% (vs 91.6% last year)

November 2025 “For Lease” snapshot:

• Closed leases: 762, down 13.0%

• Median rent: $2,300, flat year over year

• New lease listings: 888, down 7.9%

• Active lease listings: 2,596, up 1.2%

• Pending leases: 818, down 6.2%

• Months of inventory: 3.0, flat

• Close-to-list: 93.8% (vs 93.4% last year)

What I’d take from this, if you’re making real decisions

1) Buyers are not gone, they’re selective

Pending sales rising is the headline I care about, because it’s the most “right now” indicator of demand. Buyers are reentering, but they’re coming back with a sharper filter: condition matters, layout matters, pricing matters, and they’re comparing you to everything else on the market.

If you’re a seller, this is not the moment to “test” pricing. Testing gets you ignored.

2) Inventory is leverage, but only if you use it

With months of inventory climbing, buyers have more options, and options create negotiating power. That does not mean sellers are doomed. It means the winners are the sellers who treat pricing and presentation like a strategy.

Also, that 91.8% close-to-list number is a reality check. It’s telling you the market is negotiating. If your plan is “list high and we’ll come down later,” you are volunteering to chase the market, and chasing is expensive.

3) Closed sales falling is a lagging metric, not a prophecy

Closings reflect contracts written weeks or months ago, plus any external disruption that slows timelines. When pending sales are up and closings are down, it often signals the market is in transition. Buyers are moving, the pipeline is rebuilding, and the closings show up later.

4) Leasing is steady on price, softer on pace

Median rent holding flat at $2,300 tells me the rental market is stable, but the drop in closed and pending leases suggests the pace has cooled. For landlords, this can be a moment to win with smart execution, clean listing presentation, strong photos, and realistic pricing. Tenants are shopping, and they will choose the home that feels easy, well cared for, and fairly priced.

What this means for you

If you’re selling

• Price to today, not to spring 2022, not to your neighbor’s opinion.

• Prep and positioning are not optional, they are your leverage.

• If you want top-dollar behavior from buyers, your home has to earn it.

If you’re buying

• More inventory means you can negotiate with logic, not desperation.

• You can be strategic about concessions, repairs, and rate buydowns, depending on the home and the seller’s situation.

• The best homes still get attention, so preparation beats hesitation.

If you’re a homeowner or investor deciding whether to sell or rent

• With leasing stable and sales activity selective, the best move depends on your property, your timeline, and your risk tolerance.

• A “broad estimate” isn’t enough for this decision. You want a real pricing conversation, with a plan A and plan B.

Central Texas is still fundamentally strong, but the market is rewarding precision. Buyers have options, and the sellers who win are the ones who price and present like professionals.

If you want a tailored read on your home, your neighborhood, and what buyers are paying attention to right now, reach out today and I’ll run the data and walk you through it.

With Love from ATX,
Khani Zulu Group